- The Australian dollar remains in the front foot in the week, up some 0.68%.
- Despite a mixed market mood, the US Dollar Index fails to weigh on the AUD.
- AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Range-bound but close to an upward break if it remains above 0.7200.
The Australian dollar stays firm in the North American session as tensions in Ukraine increase. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7223. The market sentiment is downbeat in the equity space, while in the FX complex, risk-sensitive currencies remain in the front seat, to the detriment of safe-haven peers.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index visited the 96.00 mark during the session, falling to the 95.96 figure, down 0.12%, while the US 10-year Treasury yield edges up two basis points, up at 1.948%.
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia intensified as Russian President Putin asked the Upper House Parliament to deploy Russia’s armed forces abroad. At the same time, NATO’s Chief Stoltenberg said they would continue to provide Ukraine strong political support while saying that NATO has over 100 jets on high alert.
In the US, Secretary of State Blinken said that yesterday’s actions are the beginning of the latest Russian invasion of Ukraine. Blinken added that Russia poses a threat to the security of people everywhere in the world.
Back to the AUD/USD, the Australian economic docket featured the ANZ Consumer Confidence, which dropped 1.4%, despite easing restrictions in NSW. In the last week, inflationary expectations ticked a tenth up from 5% to 5.1%. Meanwhile, the US economic docket revealed the IHS Markit Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs for February, all of them better than foreseen. Later, the Conference Board reported that Consumer Confidence for February beat expectations came at 110.8 vs. 110.0 estimations but trailed January 113.8 print.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The AUD/USD is neutral-biased as it stays confined between the 50 and 100-day moving averages (DMAs), with the latter above the former. However, it broke above a three-month-old downslope trendline in the near term, opening the door for further upside, but would need a daily close above it.
If the abovementioned plays out, the AUD/USD first resistance would be the 100-DMA at 0.7240. Breach of the latter would expose December’s 30 daily high at 0.7275, followed by the 0.7300 mark.