Analysts at Goldman Sachs note that the prospect of agreement on Iran’s nuclear deal is a coin toss, which sees Brent oil if sanctions are lifted this year.
Key quotes
“We currently only expect a 50% probability of a deal in Dec-22 and a 50% probability that Iran will remain sanctioned through 2023.”
“A deal with Iran next month that would allow for a 3Q22 return of Iranian volumes to the market would represent up to $7/bbl downside risk relative to our above-consensus $105/bbl 2023 Brent forecast.”
But “would not derail our view for structurally higher prices.”
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