The tensions have calmed somewhat on the markets since the start of the Ukraine war, and the Swiss franc is less in demand as a safe haven. Economists at Commerzbank see EUR/CHF higher in the course of the year but only moderately.
“The SNB is likely to want to stick to the status quo for the time being. As long as risk aversion does not pick up more strongly again, the franc could trend weaker due to the SNB’s monetary policy stance. Moreover, if the ECB initiates its turnaround in July, the EUR should gain.”
“We see EUR/CHF strengthening somewhat in the course of the year. However, only moderately since the SNB should then ultimately raise its key rate in July as well.”
“Against the USD, the franc should appreciate somewhat in the course of the year, when it becomes clear that the SNB is also initiating the turnaround in monetary policy. However, since the Fed will probably act much more actively, we see USD/CHF at higher levels again next year.”