• The Euro fell after the ECB failed to inspire bulls on 0.25% rate hike
  • The ECB is cautioning that this could be peak interest rate.
  • ECB to focus on duration of rate cycle rather than frequency of policy adjustment

The EUR/GBP is staging a mid-day rebound, testing the 0.8590 region after the Euro (EUR) slumped on a dovish showing from the European Central Bank (ECB), despite a 25-basis-point rate hike that failed to bolster the EUR.

The ECB is signaling that this could be the peak of the rate hike cycle, cautioning that inflation is set to fall in the coming months, and noting that the broad European Union (EU) economy is facing downside risks as services weaken.

ECB’s Lagarde flashes warning sign that this could be the end of rate hikes

ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that while she’s not explicitly stating the EU is at peak rates, the ECB will likely focus more on the duration of current rates, rather than more rate movement in the future. President Lagarde also suggests that policy transmission is more direct, and faster to have an impact, on financial conditions than in previous cycles.

The dovish tone from ECB President Lagarde was enough to knock the Euro off of any bullish momentum on the back of the rate hike. Earlier this week investors jostled for bullish position on the EUR after an internal leak from the ECB suggested the EU central bank was poised to raise its inflation forecasts, but the revised inflation expectations weren’t enough to unluck further movement on the rate cycle at this time.

EUR/GBP technical outlook

The EUR/GBP hit an intraday high of 0.8616 ahead of the ECB rate call, then flubbed the landing, hitting 0.8578 following the rate call. Euro traders are struggling to maintain a foothold, and the pair is struggling to develop further momentum from the 0.8590 handle.

Despite the disappointing ECB showing, the EUR/GBP pair is flat for Thursday and is set to end the day near where it started, trading near the opening bids. 

Long term, the Euro-Pound Sterling (GBP) pair is caught in significant consolidation, and the pair has firmly cycled within the zone between 0.8500 and 0.8700. Daily candles have the pair down from the week’s high of 0.8630, with support priced in at last week’s swing low near 0.8530.

EUR/GBP daily chart

EUR/GBP technical levels

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