Analysts at Nomura offer their bearish outlook on the Japanese yen but refraining from placing bets on the yen crosses amid the Ukraine tensions.

Key quotes

“Near-term USD/JPY movements will depend on how the Ukraine situation unfolds, but the widening divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the US will likely limit the risk of a strong JPY. Market attention on Japan’s inflationary pressures is also on the rise, but we do not expect an acceleration of inflation in the Tokyo CPI data release next Friday.”

“We thus maintain our bearish view on JPY, even though there are near-term headline risks from the situation in Ukraine. We maintain our USD/JPY call spreads, while waiting for an opportunity for EUR/JPY long positions if the situation in Ukraine calms down.”

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