FX Strategists at UOB Group now see EUR/USD navigating within the 1.0990-1.1170 range for the time being.
24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that the ‘advance in EUR could extend above 1.1190 first before easing’. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1184 before staging a surprisingly sharp decline (low has been 1.1059). While the rapid drop appears to be running ahead of itself, EUR could decline further to 1.1035. The major support at 1.0990 is unlikely to come under threat. On the upside, a breach of 1.1125 (minor resistance is at 1.1100) would indicate the current downward pressure has eased.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “Two days ago (30 Mar, spot at 1.1085) we highlighted that the risk for EUR has shifted to the upside. We added, a clear break of 1.1140 could lead to EUR strengthening to 1.1190. As EUR rose, we highlighted yesterday (31 Mar, spot at 1.1155) that ‘if EUR breaks 1.1190, the chance for further EUR strength to 1.1240 would increase’. EUR did not break 1.1190 as it rose to 1.1184 before falling sharply to a low of 1.1059. While our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1055 is not breached, upward momentum has more or less dissipated. EUR appears to have moved into a consolidation phase and is likely to trade between 1.0990 and 1.1170 for now.”