According to FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang, further weakness lies ahead for EUR/USD on a break below 1.0470.
24-hour view: “Yesterday, we highlighted that EUR ‘could edge lower but any weakness is expected to encounter support at 1.0500’. EUR did not quite ‘edge lower’ as it plummeted to 1.0500, rebounded quickly to 1.0576 before dropping back down to close slightly lower at 1.0511 (0.15%). Despite the choppy price actions, the underlying tone has softened and the bias for today is on the downside. However, the chance of EUR breaking the major support at 1.0470 is not high. Resistance is at 1.0540 followed by 1.0560.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (06 May, spot at 1.0540), we highlighted that EUR has to close below the solid support at 1.0470 before a sustained decline is likely. There is no change in our view for now even though shorter-term downward momentum has weakened a tad and the chance for EUR to close below 1.0470 has increased slightly. Overall, only a break of 1.0605 would indicate that the chance for EUR to close below 1.0470 has dissipated. Looking ahead, the next support below 1.0470 is at 1.0420.”