Revived discussion around the Fed’s starting point for tightening is set to leave EUR/USD under the 1.15 level. A move below 1.14 should renew modest downside pressure but dips should be shallow, according to economists at TD Securities.
Material downside has been reduced
“With still some risk of accelerated tightening by the Fed, we think EUR/USD a break above 1.15 may be harder to achieve.”
“We think we will need to get through the early stages of Fed lift-off, potentially receive more clarity on terminal rate pricing before EUR can really take off.”
“For now, a move sub-1.14 would be significant from a tactical point of view, but we are mindful that dips could be shallow.”