GBP/USD has tested the 1.35 level ahead of key domestic data releases this week. Economists at Scotiabank believe that the cable could plunge to the 1.32 level if Russia makes a move into Ukrainian territory.
GBP to lose its footing as market reassess the outlook for BoE policy
“The ONS’s data on January payrolls and inflation should go a long way to confirming BoE hike expectations although we think that markets are overconfident in their assessment of a 50bps increase. OIS markets reflect an 80% chance of such a move and also expect the bank rate to reach 2% as soon as November, which is too steep of a hiking pace and too high of a terminal rate for the BoE to follow.”
“A Russian invasion of Ukraine would likely trigger GBP losses under 1.34 with an eventual test of the 1.32 zone.”