- Risk sensitive currencies like the New Zealand dollar fall vs. “safe-haven” status Japanese yen.
- The NZD/JPY is neutral-upward biased, supported by solid support at 77.58.
- NZD/JPY Technical Outlook: Rangebound between the 77.31-77.88 area.
The NZD/JPY aims lower, after recording a gain of 1.77% on Monday, blamed on a risk-off market mood spurred by the Ukraine-Russia war. At the time of writing, the NZD/JPY is trading at 77.58.
Anxiety levels in the financial markets keep rising. The Russia-Ukraine war appears to not fade in the near term; instead, it escalated. Ukraine intelligence reported that 300-Belarussian tanks sit near the Ukraine-Belarus border, and could enter Ukraine territory, provoked by Russia. The headline caught traders off guard, as oil rallied to a new YTD high above the $100 mark while global yields plunged, led by US Treasuries.
The NZD/JPY immediately dropped from 77.80 to 77.30s.
NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Following the end of the March 1 session, the NZD/JPY is range-bound within the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs). The pair is neutral-upward biased, as NZD bulls kept the price above February 18 daily high at 77.58, a level that, once broken, would exacerbate a move towards the 50-DMA at 77.31 and beyond.
NZD/JPY’s first resistance would be the confluence of a two-month-old downslope trendline and the 100-DMA at 78.31. Breach of the latter would expose January 13 high at 78.84, followed by January 5 daily high at 79.24.