The US Dollar Index (DXY) is flatlining around 99. DXY could test lower levels near term if momentum toward de-escalation in Ukraine continues, but weakness should prove fleeting with the Federal Reserve sticking resolutely to a hawkish path. 

A move above 100 is on the cards in coming weeks

“A front-loaded Fed hike cycle should provide sustained tailwinds for DXY through 2022 though past Fed hike cycles caution that a sustained Fed-driven appreciation profile might take time to develop.”

“There’s more near term DXY downside to be had if momentum toward a de-escalation in Eastern Europe builds, possibly as low as 97.0-95.70, but with the US curve flattening aggressively and short end yield support continuing to build, DXY still looks headed to 100+ in coming weeks.”

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