- USD/IDR fades bounce off weekly low, pressured inside immediate range.
- Indonesia trade surplus shrinks as imports jump more in November.
- Indecision ahead of FOMC adds filters to the sluggish trading.
USD/IDR remains pressured around intraday low, down 0.05% on a day near $14,320 amid early Wednesday morning in Europe. The Indonesian rupiah pair refreshed weekly low the previous day but stayed sidelined afterward.
In doing so, the pair pays a little heed to November’s foreign trade data for Indonesia. That said, Indonesia’s Trade Balance eased from $5.74B prior and $4.45B expected to $3.51B in November. Further details suggest that the Imports rallied to 52.62% versus 37.55% market consensus and 51.06% whereas Exports grew 49.7% versus 44% forecast and 53.35% prior.
Other than the data, mixed concerns over today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also challenge USD/IDR prices.
A contrast between the downbeat US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, versus a record high Producer Price Index (PPI) for November test Fed hawks of late. On the same line is the covid-linked anxiety as virus updates from the West battle vaccine hopes and expectations of stimulus.
Against this backdrop, Asia-Pacific shares trade mixed whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields and the S&P 500 Futures remain sluggish by the press time.
Moving on, Fed’s verdict is the key for USD/IDR traders amid higher hopes of faster tapering and signals for rate hike in 2022.
A daily closing below a two-month-old support line near $14,300 becomes the key support before directing USD/IDR bears to the $14,170 support.