- USD/TRY extends the rally to the vicinity of 10.0000.
- The loses around 25% vs. the greenback so far in 2021.
- The CBRT meets on November 18 and could reduce rates further.
The Turkish lira depreciates to fresh all-time lows vs. the greenback and pushes USD/TRY to the boundaries of the psychological 10.0000 mark on Thursday.
USD/TRY: The 10.00 yardstick is around the corner
USD/TRY advances for the third consecutive session so far on Thursday against the backdrop of the relentless move higher in the US dollar.
In fact, spot picked up further pace as of late following the higher-than-expected US inflation figures during October (published on Wednesday). The 30-year spike in the US CPI rapidly ignited speculations over a sooner rates lift-off by the Fed, exactly the opposite situation to what is happening in Turkey.
Indeed, the Turkish CPI rose to nearly 20% in October vs. the same month of 2020… and the Turkish central bank (CBRT) surprised markets with a shocking 200 bps reduction of the One-Week Repo Rate.
That said, while the next CBRT meeting on November 18 remains a close call (ish), another interest rate cut by the central bank should not surprise anybody and could open the door to USD/TRY to challenge… the moon?.
USD/TRY key levels
So far, the pair is gaining 0.71% at 9.9125 and a drop below 9.5581 (20-day SMA) would expose 9.4722 (monthly low Nov.2) and finally 9.4128 (weekly low Oct.26). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 9.9723 (all-time high Oct.25) followed by 10.0000 (psychological level).