The Rand fell around 10% versus the US Dollar on a spot return basis this year. Looking ahead, economists at Société Générale expect the USD/ZAR pair to plunge to 15 by the end of 2023.
Rates are likely to stay at 8% until the end of 2023
“Despite the heightened political uncertainties, we remain positive on the ZAR. The re-opening of China and broader USD depreciation should deflate USD/ZAR in our view towards 15.00 by end-2023.”
“Headline inflation peaked five months ago but remains above the target range of 3-6%. We expect the central bank to slow the pace of tightening and deliver two more hikes of 50 bps in 1Q23 to 8%. Rates are likely to stay at this level until the end of 2023.”
“GDP growth may moderate from 1.9% this year to 1.2% in 2023.”