US Q3 GDP Overview
Thursday’s US economic docket highlights the release of the Final GDP print for the third quarter, scheduled at 13:30 GMT. The third revision is expected to show that the world’s largest economy grew 2.9% annualized pace during the July-September period, matching the previous estimates.
How Could it Affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the key release, the US Dollar comes under some renewed selling pressure amid retreating US Treasury bond yields and assists the EUR/USD pair to regain some positive traction on Thursday. That said, a modest pullback in the US equity futures lends some support to the safe-haven buck and keeps a lid on any meaningful upside for the major.
Meanwhile, the backwards-looking data might do little to influence market expectations about the Fed’s next policy move or provide any meaningful impetus to the greenback. That said, an upward revision of the US GDP print could revive bets for a prolonged policy tightening by the Fed and prompt some near-term short-covering around the USD.
Conversely, a weaker-than-expected reading will be enough to reaffirm bets that the US central bank will pivot from an ultra-hawkish stance to something more hawkish. This will be enough to exert additional downward pressure on the buck and allow the EUR/USD pair to push through a one-week-old trading range hurdle near the 1.0660 area.
Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the major and writes: “EUR/USD near-term technical outlook points to a slightly bullish bias with the pair holding above the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the four-hour chart. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index indicator on the same chart stays above 50.”
Eren also outlines important levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “1.0680 (end-point of the latest uptrend, static level) aligns as first resistance before 1.0700 (psychological level) and 1.0735 (December 15 high).”
“On the downside, first support is located at 1.0620 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA) ahead of 1.0580 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.0560 (100-period SMA),” Eren adds further.
About US GDP
The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country’s economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for equities, while a low reading is negative.