- WTI rebounded sharply on Thursday after Wednesday’s US/Iran negotiation progress headlines triggered a sharp drop.
- Having been as low as $90.00 on Wednesday, WTI is now trading near $92.00 again thanks to escalating Russia/Ukraine/NATO tensions.
- A long-term trendline continues to offer WTI support.
Oil prices have been choppy on Thursday, caught between the conflicting forces of progress towards a return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal which could pave the way to a return of Iranian exports to global markets and geopolitical tensions. After Wednesday’s sharp pullback late in US trade on the US/Iran progress headlines that saw front-month WTI futures dip as low as a test of the $90.00 level, prices have seen a sharp recovery on Thursday. Reports of shelling in Eastern Ukraine between pro-Russia separatist forces and the Ukrainian military was the trigger for the rebound and, at current levels near the $92.00 mark, WTI is about $1.50 higher on the session.
For now, WTI is finding support at a long-term uptrend that has been in play all of 2022 thus far. If it wasn’t for Russia/Ukraine/NATO tensions, this support would probably have already been broken to the downside and, if there is de-escalation, may yet be broken. This would likely trigger technical selling and a quick slide under $90.00 and towards recent support in the $88.00s. But that’s a big if, and if Russia does invade Ukraine in some way in the coming days, as NATO leaders see as a very likely possibility, WTI prices would likely be propelled higher towards $100 per barrel.